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—————————————————————————————————————————————2011-04-05 17:58:34 新浪博客 夕饮冰
（因为生意与印度的渊源颇深，所以对这个金君瓦拉先生深感兴趣，当然他的投资理念更是自己喜欢的。此君投资赚得了十亿美元家产，福布斯2010年排名印度第51，全球第1062。以前介绍过他的一些理念：印度“巴菲特”——金君瓦拉投资箴言）
He was dubbed by media as India’s greatest investor, the Oracle
of Mumbai; Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is an Indian Chartered Accountant by
qualification but an investor/trader by profession. In 2010, Forbes
rated him India's 51st and the world's #1062 richest man with
wealth of $1.0 billion. Much like Warren Buffet, he buys into the
business model of a company by judging the longevity and growth
potential. He gives top priority to “competitive ability” and
“management quality” of the enterprise. But
Rakesh’s investment mantra took some interesting turns for growth,
with a subtle endorsement for “momentum,” a dirty word for many
die-hard value investors. Here is a summary of Rakesh
Jhunjhunwala’s version of intelligent investing based on his talks
over the years.
集中于企业的竞争能力（FOCUS ON THE “COMPETITIVE ABILITY” OF THE
BUSINESS）
Most people are obsessed about news headlines like war, natural
disaster, inflation, currency rates, fiscal deficit and political
turmoil. Yet we all know that global macro events are hard to
predict and impossible to control. “Don’t worry about things that
you neither know about nor can do anything about. It’s not
important. Instead focus your energies on what you can and should
know well enough – the business of the company you are investing
in,” says Rakesh Jhunjhumwala.
Like Warren
Buffett, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala tries to
avoid complex economic issues and hard business problems. He likes
to invest in simple, understandable businesses. Rakesh refused to
buy Himachal Futuristic, Global Tele and Pentasoft in their
heydays. He chose to stick to Shipping Corporation, Titan Watches
and the other tried and tested names. This echoes a well-known
investment tip: Buy what you know.
Rakesh asks: Do you understand
the business enough to be able to know what will happen 10 or 20
years from today? With Shipping Corporation, you know because
shipping of goods will continue to happen for the foreseeable
future. But you can’t predict that with technology companies which
might have a hot product today but could see it become obsolete in
five years.
研读企业家的视野和信念（STUDY THE ENTREPRENEUR’S VISION
AND BELIEFS）
While Warren
Buffett talks about people he admires and trusts, Rakesh likes
to use the word “entrepreneur” to describe what makes an invaluable
difference to his investment success. According to Jhunjhunwala,
believing in the vision and the beliefs of the entrepreneur and
evaluating the risks that may not be perceived by the entrepreneur
are the key success factors for an investor.
While studying the entrepreneur’s vision,
investors should not forget to study industry realities,
competitive landscape and historical track records.
寻找可测性（LOOK FOR SCALABILITY）
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala stresses growth considerations such as the
scalability of operations. He likes to buy small caps that could
quickly scale into large caps. Many analysts and investors debate
on whether large-cap, mid-cap or small-cap stocks are better.
“Forget all that and look for value,” he thunders. “If there is value in large cap, buy it. If there is
value in small cap, buy it. But don’t obsess on irrelevant
matters.”
Given a choice and all other things being equal, a mid
cap or a small cap is a preferred bet because the valuations will
be low due to obscurity and they might scale up quite
quickly.
Safe utility stocks with limited upside are
not for Rakesh. What’s the point in buying an electricity
company where the return on investment cannot by law exceed a
certain amount, asks Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. But
he does acknowledge that electricity and utility companies could be
part of a portfolio because they are defensive against market
declines due to the consistent demand for their product and their
predictable cash flows.
坚持不懈地分析和耐心地等待（UNWEARYINGLY ANALYZE AND
PATIENTLY WAIT）
First, you must always remember that you are buying a business, not
just a quote that bounces up and down. When
you buy that business, it must be of a very high quality, one that
is capable of growing over time. Having done your hard work, you
must wait for the market to do its work and reward you.
“Give your investments time to
mature. Be patient for the world to discover your
gems,” says Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.
When he bought Lupin it was just another mid-cap pharma company
starting out into the world of generic drugs. What Rakesh Jhunjhunwala saw was a good, efficient
management that knew its job, a debt-free status, a good product
line up and a growing market. That’s all. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
bought and played the waiting game. When the market matured, Rakesh
Jhunjhunwala raked in his millions.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala also fondly talks about his
investment in Karur Vysya Bank which he has held onto even after about 20 years since he
bought them. He says that his paltry investment of Rs 2,000 is
worth several crores today thanks to patience and conviction.
忘掉PE和ROE,寻找利润的源泉（FORGET P/E AND ROE: LOOK FOR SOURCES
OF PROFITS）
Most investors fixate on the current sales and profit figures. They
look at each quarter and focus obsessively on measures like return
on equity (ROE). “That’s missing the wood for
the trees,” says Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, “Look at the sources of profits. What are the
reasons that will give rise to profits in the intermediate or
longer term. Look at the factors and circumstances that will create
an opportunity for businesses in the
sector.”
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala gives the classic example of Infosys and Wipro.
While the average Joe would have sat with his calculator analyzing
Infosys’s & Wipro’s PE, ROE and nonsense like that,
an astute investor in the 1990s would have
realized that an internet revolution was coming in the next couple
of years. He would have also realized that the off-shore business
segment was booming, and he would have loaded up on those
shares.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala gives another example: Praj
Industries, a company engaged in manufacture of bio-ethanol fuel.
When Praj Industries started out,
nobody realized the massive demand that would arise for alternate
fuels like ethanol. Foreseeing future demands and big trends is the
key to finding ten-baggers.
研究一个坏的季度的深层原因（EXAMINE REASONS BEHIND A BAD
QUARTER）
Too many investors, influenced by a bad
quarter or obsessed with short-term aberrations, lose sight of the
big picture. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala emphasizes that
he does not worry about quarterly
results. If the results are bad in one
quarter, he examines the results and look for the reasons behind
the numbers. Are the quarterly results showing a trend and
suggesting something? Is this a mere aberration or is there a
trend?
The trick is to distinguish between short-term trends
and long-term value. He cites the example of 1999 when investors
bought truck loads of hot stocks like Himachal Futuristic, Global
Tele, Pentasoft while he was buying Shipping Corporation and Bharat
Electronics because he saw long-term value in them: People still
need shipping and electronics. The Oracle of Mumbai says:
Never get carried away by aberrations.
Recognize and respect them. Remember that the market corrects its
aberrations though it takes time.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala advises that if the market behaves irrationally and punishes a stock
for short-term issues, that’s the time for you to jump in.
He cites the classic example of Titan Watches to prove his theory.
Titan suffered a headline crisis when it went into Europe and lost
a lot of money. Rakesh wasn’t alarmed because he knew that India’s
prosperity and the domestic buyers were more important. Rakesh saw
the future and knew subconsciously that Indians were going to buy
far more watches and that the underlying business remained sound.
“In a moment of crisis you can get cheap
valuations, and if you can see the future where the product could
have demand and growth, you should use the opportunity to
buy.”
有信心地果断买入（BUY DECISIVELY AND WITH CONVICTION）
The biggest challenge that faces value investors is that
things always look bloody terrible at
the bottom. Therefore, people’s hands usually shake
uncontrollably when the prices are hitting new lows every day.
Traders would ride the downward wave, and
investors would hesitate and procrastinate, questioning their own
judgment. They say to themselves: “Well, did I make a mistake? Should I wait a little and
maybe the price will drop a little more?” Lack of conviction and
courage is the root cause for mediocrity. Almost every value
investor could say: “Wow, I could have become really rich if
I had loaded up on that stock 10 years ago…” And that’s a big “if.”
The problem is that they didn’t spend enough concentrated time to
develop the conviction and they did not act with unwavering
courage, the hallmark of serious wealth.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala talks about the power of
conviction: “If you see an opportunity, grab
it today!” Buy with conviction. The best opportunities often look
like insolvable problems and hard work. Many wonderful
opportunities are lost due to hesitation, procrastination and
“thumb-sucking,” as Warren
Buffett calls it. Many investors end up
with life-long regrets that they saw opportunities slip away right
under their own eyes. It is important to identify the opportunity.
But that’s not enough. You have to be able to articulate the simple
but powerful logic that most people miss. And above all, you have
to be decisive. Value investors often get stuck in a trap where
they are perpetually seeking extra information to validate their
idea, while others wait and wait again for lower prices. In
this, Rakesh echos Warren
Buffett and John Maynard Keynes: If it’s cheap, buy it. Don’t
pass up something cheap today in the hope that it will get cheaper
tomorrow.
But how is Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s investment operation different
from Buffett in areas like riding trends and creating buzz about
his stock? We will look into that next time. (To be
continued.)
------
Brian Zen, PhD, CFA, is founder of Zenway Group, a New York-based investment
advisory firm that provides family wealth creation coaching
programs and tutoring services to children and their parents.
Through newsletters, family learning parties, face-to-face tutoring
and online classes, Zenway-certified Financial Tutors teaches
children the craft of investing and helps their parents to grow
family wealth. Dr. Zen appreciates your questions and feedbacks at:
info (at) zenway.com.
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发表于 2011-10-15 23:04:38
