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金融角斗士 · 发表于 2013-4-1 13:21:42

华力创通:计算机仿真行业龙头
2010年01月04日09:40腾讯财经特约我要评论(0)
字号：T|T
我们预计公司09-11年每股收益为0.51元、0.71元和0.95元,对应10年合理市盈率在35-40倍之间,建议一级市场询价区间为24.85-28.4元。
主要依据:
1、公司自设立以来一直专注于从事基于计算机技术的仿真测试系统及其相关设备的研发、生产和销售业务,重点服务于中国的国防军工领域,公司的主要产品包括机电仿真测试产品、射频仿真测试产品和仿真应用开发服务,具体为半实物仿真系统、雷达仿真测试产品、卫星导航仿真测试产品以及仿真应用开发服务等。 2、近三年公司营业收入保持33.78%的年复合增长率,各类产品市场占有率稳定增长。根据赛迪顾问的报告,2008年,公司的半实物仿真系统产品占相应细分市场份额的10.4%,位列国内同类自主产品第一;雷达仿真测试产品占相应细分市场份额的4.41%,位列国内同类自主产品第一;仿真应用开发服务占相应细分市场份额的3.1%,在国内厂商中处于领先地位。 3、根据赛迪报告预计,未来五年国内计算机仿真测试市场可实现18%以上的复合增长率,其中半实物仿真测试市场将保持20.8%的复合增长率,2013年达到10.2亿元人民币;射频仿真测试市场将保持30%的复合增长率,2013年达到38亿元人民币;仿真模拟训练按照未来五年每年20%的速度递增,2013年达到230.2 亿元人民币。预计到2013国内计算机仿真市场总规模可达686亿元人民币以上。近几年以公司为代表的本土厂商迅速成长,不断抢占市场份额,可以预见,伴随下游行业“中国制造”向“中国创造”的技术提升和产业升级,本土厂商将迎来巨大的市场机会。

金融角斗士 · 发表于 2013-4-1 16:49:26

目前买入股票方法基本确立为：
1）CANSLIM方法
2）技术个周期共振
卖出理由：
1）基本面变坏
2）涨幅惊人
3）技术面严重超买
4）找到更好的股票

金融角斗士 · 发表于 2013-4-3 11:51:34

耐心结合智慧会让你收获匪浅，90%的人看到好股票，便一头买入，我也类似，我的几乎所有的股票买入后，回撤了10%-20%，（如果在止损，那就是白白割肉了）如果再耐心等到一段时间1-3周或更长，便会买入价格便宜的，这样未来上涨利润会增加20-40%，这很值得耐心。巴菲特年平均不过30%，只要耐心就会取得很好的业绩。其实简单一些就是找到好股票，再耐心等到多周期共振点就是最佳的进入时机，90%的人没有这个耐心，那自然就会饱受煎熬，其实耐心等到买入便宜价格的几率很高，目前几乎是70-80%的概率能买到好价格。当然没有计划的耐心等待是愚蠢和无聊

金融角斗士 · 发表于 2013-4-3 12:15:13

tgs：南美进入冬季，天然气增加消耗，技术面多周期共振，持续走高，耐心持有到4.5-5元
AVL:经济周期没有来临，多周期下降，未来在月线，周线技术面转好之时，继续等资金补仓，重点看中国的稀土高科走势和MCP（已经止跌？）
JVA:类似AVL
NM:涨幅不错，目前回调，不以理睬
CPIX:医药股不错，多周期技术面共振向上
ISS:基本面不错，技术面回调中，如果破最低价，等待多周期走好，继续等量补仓1000股，目前不以理睬

金融角斗士 · 发表于 2013-4-3 12:23:02

目前跟踪：SMTX：基本面不错，技术面多周期下坡，如果破最低价，等待多周期走好，买入2500-3000股
CO:基本面不错，等待技术回调(看看日线MACD，周月MACD):买入2500-3000股
FENG:以前很看重，目前开始拉升了，这个耐心是错了的耐心，虽然基本面还是少了内部和机构介入，但是其他的还是不错的。如果回调10% 到3.8-3.9，买入1500股

金融角斗士 · 发表于 2013-4-3 12:27:32

美股连连新高，我的股票远远落后指数，我未来要买入指数基金了，可是这很没有意思，不过数字不饶人

金融角斗士 · 发表于 2013-4-4 09:52:36

没想到TGS昨天分红10%，一下子10%到手，以前一直对他没有好感，不过当初选中它，也是因为分红比例高，效益好，天然气优势才买的。
表现最差的是周期股稀土AVL，咖啡JVA,
一季度总收益为正也只有2%左右，昨日美股大跌，我的股票还好，跟踪新的：FLOW
共振点届时买入

金融角斗士 · 发表于 2013-4-4 09:58:28

Flow International Corporation (FLOW)
-NasdaqGS

3.65 Down 0.09(2.41%) 3:59PM EDT|After Hours : 3.65 0.00 (0.00%) 4:34PM EDT
Add to Portfolio
Analyst Opinion Get Analyst Opinion for:
Recommendation Summary*
Mean Recommendation (this week): 1.5
Mean Recommendation (last week): 1.5
Change: 0.0

* (Strong Buy) 1.0 - 5.0 (Sell)Compare to Industry
Price Target Summary
Mean Target: 4.83
Median Target: 5.00
High Target: 5.00
Low Target: 4.50
No. of Brokers: 3
Flow International Corporation (FLOW)
-NasdaqGS

3.65 Down 0.09(2.41%) 3:59PM EDT|After Hours : 3.65 0.00 (0.00%) 4:34PM EDT
Add to Portfolio
Analyst Estimates Get Analyst Estimates for:
Earnings Est Current Qtr.
Apr 13 Next Qtr.
Jul 13 Current Year
Apr 13 Next Year
Apr 14
Avg. Estimate 0.04 0.06 0.20 0.30
No. of Analysts 3.00 3.00 3.00 4.00
Low Estimate 0.04 0.06 0.19 0.27
High Estimate 0.04 0.06 0.23 0.33
Year Ago EPS 0.04 0.05 0.18 0.20
Revenue Est Current Qtr.
Apr 13 Next Qtr.
Jul 13 Current Year
Apr 13 Next Year
Apr 14
Avg. Estimate 65.02M 70.15M 265.96M 292.32M
No. of Analysts 3 3 3 3
Low Estimate 65.00M 70.00M 265.90M 290.00M
High Estimate 65.06M 70.30M 266.00M 295.30M
Year Ago Sales 63.40M 66.24M 253.77M 265.96M
Sales Growth (year/est) 2.60% 5.90% 4.80% 9.90%
Earnings History Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13
EPS Est 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06
EPS Actual 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06
Difference 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Surprise % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
EPS Trends Current Qtr.
Apr 13 Next Qtr.
Jul 13 Current Year
Apr 13 Next Year
Apr 14
Current Estimate 0.04 0.06 0.20 0.30
7 Days Ago 0.04 0.06 0.20 0.30
30 Days Ago 0.07 0.07 0.23 0.34
60 Days Ago 0.07 0.07 0.23 0.34
90 Days Ago 0.07 0.07 0.23 0.34
EPS Revisions Current Qtr.
Apr 13 Next Qtr.
Jul 13 Current Year
Apr 13 Next Year
Apr 14
Up Last 7 Days 0 0 0 0
Up Last 30 Days 0 0 0 0
Down Last 30 Days 0 0 0 0
Down Last 90 Days N/A N/A N/A N/A
Growth Est FLOW Industry Sector S&P 500
Current Qtr. 0.00% 18.50% 76.00% 10.50%
Next Qtr. 20.00% 3.50% 26.90% 16.20%
This Year 11.10% 10.90% 46.50% 8.20%
Next Year 50.00% 19.90% -10.90% 12.90%
Past 5 Years (per annum) -8.39% N/A N/A N/A
Next 5 Years (per annum) 30.00% 13.71% 13.33% 8.91%
Price/Earnings (avg. for comparison categories) 19.55 13.88 18.05 18.52
PEG Ratio (avg. for comparison categories) 0.65 1.49 1.41 1.83

Flow International Corporation (FLOW)
-NasdaqGS

3.65 Down 0.09(2.41%) 3:59PM EDT|After Hours : 3.65 0.00 (0.00%) 4:34PM EDT
Add to Portfolio
Major Holders Get Major Holders for:
Breakdown
% of Shares Held by All Insider and 5% Owners: 6%
% of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 77%
% of Float Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 82%
Number of Institutions Holding Shares: 119

Major Direct Holders (Forms 3 & 4)
Holder Shares Reported
BROWN CHARLES M 906,160 Jun 18, 2012
HSIEH ALLEN 212,256 Mar 4, 2013
LEBLANC RICHARD ANTHONY 201,168 Jun 18, 2012
LENESS JOHN S 173,567 Jun 18, 2012
HASHISH MOHAMED 125,566 Jun 18, 2012

Top Institutional Holders
Holder Shares % Out Value* Reported
Rutabaga Capital Management, LLC 2,868,945 5.92 10,041,307 Dec 31, 2012
Royce & Associates, LLC 2,763,172 5.71 9,671,102 Dec 31, 2012
Otter Creek Management, Inc. 2,710,000 5.60 9,485,000 Dec 31, 2012
Freshford Capital Management, LLC 2,134,118 4.41 7,469,413 Dec 31, 2012
Stephens Investment Management Group 1,905,710 3.94 6,669,985 Dec 31, 2012
Robeco Investment Management, Inc. 1,801,831 3.72 6,306,408 Dec 31, 2012
Cortina Asset Management, LLC 1,746,120 3.61 6,111,420 Dec 31, 2012
Marxe, Austin W. & Greenhouse, David M. 1,732,290 3.58 6,063,015 Dec 31, 2012
Vanguard Group, Inc. (The) 1,471,550 3.04 5,150,425 Dec 31, 2012
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP 1,435,961 2.97 5,025,863 Dec 31, 2012
Flow International Corporation (FLOW)
-NasdaqGS

3.65 Down 0.09(2.41%) 3:59PM EDT|After Hours : 3.65 0.00 (0.00%) 4:34PM EDT
Add to Portfolio
Balance Sheet Get Balance Sheet for:
View: Annual Data | Quarterly Data All numbers in thousands
Period Ending Apr 29, 2012 Apr 29, 2011 Apr 29, 2010
Assets
Current Assets
Cash And Cash Equivalents 14,377    10,862    7,006
Short Term Investments -    -    -
Net Receivables 46,830    47,082    35,749
Inventory 40,069    28,609    22,503
Other Current Assets 14,269    11,539    8,837
Total Current Assets 115,545    98,092    74,095
Long Term Investments -    -    -
Property Plant and Equipment 17,488    19,104    21,769
Goodwill -    -    -
Intangible Assets 4,936    4,738    4,504
Accumulated Amortization -    -    -
Other Assets 5,793    5,958    4,511
Deferred Long Term Asset Charges 23,304    25,171    26,330
Total Assets 167,066    153,063    131,209
Liabilities
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 45,169    38,119    31,625
Short/Current Long Term Debt 21    5,525    411
Other Current Liabilities 13,910    13,317    10,146
Total Current Liabilities 59,100    56,961    42,182
Long Term Debt 9,587    8,723    7,954
Other Liabilities 1,554    2,214    1,593
Deferred Long Term Liability Charges 5,777    5,711    3,856
Minority Interest -    -    -
Negative Goodwill -    -    -
Total Liabilities 76,018    73,609    55,585
Stockholders' Equity
Misc Stocks Options Warrants -    -    -
Redeemable Preferred Stock -    -    -
Preferred Stock -    -    -
Common Stock 474    469    465
Retained Earnings (69,672) (79,121) (79,887)
Treasury Stock -    -    -
Capital Surplus 164,882    161,741    159,605
Other Stockholder Equity (4,636) (3,635) (4,559)
Total Stockholder Equity 91,048    79,454    75,624
Net Tangible Assets 86,112    74,716    71,120
Flow International Corporation (FLOW)
-NMS

3.65 Down 0.09(2.41%) 3:59PM EDT|After Hours : 3.65 0.00 (0.00%) 4:34PM EDT
Add to Portfolio
Cash Flow Get Cash Flow for:
View: Annual Data | Quarterly Data All numbers in thousands
Period Ending Apr 29, 2012 Apr 29, 2011 Apr 29, 2010
Net Income 9,449    766    (8,484)
Operating Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In
Depreciation 7,110    7,473    6,713
Adjustments To Net Income 10,155    8,819    8,410
Changes In Accounts Receivables (2,071) (10,051) (3,547)
Changes In Liabilities 2,682    4,795    6,150
Changes In Inventories (13,368) (6,392) (1,702)
Changes In Other Operating Activities (1,246) (2,485) (3,713)
Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities 12,711    2,925    3,827
Investing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In
Capital Expenditures (3,947) (2,675) (9,196)
Investments -    -    -
Other Cash flows from Investing Activities (371) (1,784) 3,509
Total Cash Flows From Investing Activities (4,318) (4,459) (5,687)
Financing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In
Dividends Paid -    -    -
Sale Purchase of Stock -    -    17,199
Net Borrowings (5,495) 5,114    (18,262)
Other Cash Flows from Financing Activities -    -    -
Total Cash Flows From Financing Activities (5,495) 5,114    (1,670)
Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes 948    (851) (220)
Change In Cash and Cash Equivalents 3,846    2,729    (3,750)

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Currency in USD.

金融角斗士 · 发表于 2013-4-4 10:15:30

看了一下大宗商品：从石油，金银，橡胶，糖，各类农产品，贵金属都在下跌，这意味着经济底部还没有来临，当然我的咖啡，稀土也在跟跌。
不过一旦跌幅很深，可以考虑买入金银股票，他们一旦上涨很疯狂

金融角斗士 · 发表于 2013-4-4 12:48:48

本帖最后由金融角斗士于 2013-4-4 12:50 编辑

预计买入价格：
CO月周不错，日线微差:2.74-2.8，现价：2.9
SMTX:月周日不好，现价：2.3，理想价格：1.9+-5分（1.85-1.95）
FLOW:月无法判断，周日不好，现价：3.65，理想价格：3.2上下5分
如果到达，每种各买5000USD，哪个先到，先买那个
其他目前6个个股，目前不宜考虑补仓

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