扣动扳机了

金融角斗士

阿根廷国歌歌颂自由，勇敢，反抗独裁和暴政，美国国歌歌颂自由和勇敢，反抗外来的压迫，歌颂上帝的神圣，中国国歌歌颂保卫家乡，抗击外来侵略，歌颂勇敢（却没有歌颂自由）

金融角斗士

CRESY的选择属于失误，它跌得最惨（按错按钮买入，错得离奇）

金融角斗士

切掉CRESY300股，改为NM海运700股，CRESY纯属意外不小心按错按钮买入，（看来买入的时候一定要小心谨慎，心态平和），买入的最少，仅仅300股，就1周亏损了9%亏损了，CRESY公布今年产量不好，谷物下降，气候干燥。所以改为700股NM海运。
干散货船运费2015年看升三倍
来源：大公报  2013-02-06 10:39:49  我要评论（0）  分享到： 分享文章

由於春节前船运活动淡静，加上欧美圣诞旺季刚过，波罗的海乾散货综合运费指数（BDI）已连续下跌12日，该指数昨报739点，再跌6点或0.8%。但市场普遍预期今年乾散货运输市场将较去年有所改善，奥斯陆投行RSPlatouMarket发表报告更乐观预测，乾散货船运费在2015年将较目前激增三倍。

三大船型中，海岬型船运费指数（BCI）昨报1466点，升5点或0.3%。日均租金為7262美元，跌54美元。巴拿马型船运费指数（BPI）昨报651点，跌2点或0.3%。日均租金為5163美元，跌13美元。灵便型船运费指数（BSI）昨报677点，跌4点或0.5%。日均租金為7076美元，跌44美元。

业内人士分析，由於对全球乾散货运输市场影响最大的中国经济不断回暖，加上乾散货市场运力压力逐渐放缓，今年乾散货船东利润改善幅度将会加大。此外，美国经济逐渐復苏，预测今年泛太线表现较好。欧洲方面，欧债危机迟迟未能有效解决，相信亚欧线运费仍然受压。

RSPlatouMarket发表报告称，乾散货船运费在2015年将较目前激增三倍，原因是需求增长较运力增长快。其中，海岬型船今年日均租金将增长16%至1.1万美元，於明后两年分别增至1.9万美元和3万美元。该型船的需求今年增长7.3%，而运力则增长7.5%。而巴拿马型船今年的日均租金将增长5.9%至9000美元，於2014年增至1.3万美元。预期明年该型船的需求增长為7.6%，运力将下跌3.3%。

报告指出，今年乾散货船队运力增速较去年放缓，预期市场在今年下半年将有所改善。克拉克森数据显示，全球乾散货船队运力在去年增长10%至6.79亿载重吨，增幅较2010年17%和2011年15%的增幅已有所放缓。

但是中银国际在报告中判断，儘管运费在今年初出现反弹，但BDI指数仍处於相对低位，而淡季需求疲软以及运力过剩短期仍难以改观，预计BDI指数未来将继续低位徘徊。据了解，BDI指数至少在3000点以上，航运企业才能够盈利。

分析指出，“2013年的增量再加上庞大的存量，运力严重失衡的矛盾还将延续，船东如不加快老旧船淘汰进度，严控运力规模，近一两年国际乾散货海运市场低迷将不可避免。”

金融角斗士

由于咖啡的种植受海拔及降雨量等自然条件的影响较大，因此全球可种植咖啡的土地资源非常有限。如果所有非传统消费国家的增长速度都如同10年前的传统消费国家印尼一样（5年内消费增长了50%），那么在有限的种植资源及无限的消费潜力下，未来5年咖啡将出现严重的供不应求。

    国际、国内对咖啡的市场需求依然旺盛。据统计，目前全球老牌咖啡消费国的咖啡消费平均增长速度在1.5%左右，新兴咖啡消费国咖啡消费增长幅度比较大，印尼5年内咖啡消费量增加了50%。我国目前人均消费量极低，年消费量仅6万吨左右，但每年的消费量增长接近15%，消费空间巨大，从速溶咖啡到店面消费的消费模式也不断成熟。
“目前尽管遭遇价格低谷，但这并非中国咖啡种植业的冬天。根据咖啡三至四年挂果的生长周期，在当前的价格低谷种植后，今后会在价格上涨时迎来盛果期，目前是发展咖啡种植的机会。”根据巴克莱资本分析师发布的最新报告，尽管巴西咖啡作物长势强劲，但受强降雨影响，全球咖啡主产国哥伦比亚今年的咖啡产量将连续第四年低于预期。2012年以来，咖啡豆价格一直处于下行通道，从30多元/公斤下降到11月20日的17.9元/公斤。据悉，这个价格在2012～2013年云南咖啡豆采购季中，创下了近5年来雀巢在云南收购咖啡豆的新低。
现在也是最佳的投资期

金融角斗士

我在最低迷的2的行业潜伏下来，重仓海运和咖啡，等待收获期的到来，需要等待1-3年，预计100-300%的收益：
国外也论证了我的观点：
European stocks for your portfolio? The market seems a bit more attractive than it did in 2011 and 2012 when the headlines heavily drove market price. With this in mind, we created a list of high growth European stocks that may be considered undervalued by popular technical indicators.To create the list below, we started by screening European stocks with market caps above $300 million for those with a PEG below 1 and P/E ratio below 15. Low P/Es are attractive because nobody wants to overpay for good growth - although this number may indicate there is little growth at all.
To find stocks with high growth expectations, we then screened for names with 5-year EPS growth projected at 15% or higher. We were left with the eight names listed below.
Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NM): Operates as a seaborne shipping and logistics company in Greece. Market cap at $376.94M, most recent closing price at $3.68. P/E: 13.14. PEG: 0.82. EPS growth for the next 5 years: 16%. Greece.
We are pleased to report what we believe to be extremely positive results to our shareholders. Even though coffee prices fell over 40% and coffee was the worst performing traded commodity according to the Standard & Poor's GSCI during calendar 2012, we increased our revenues by 18% for 2012 as a substantial increase in poundage offset lower and extremely volatile coffee prices during the year. More importantly, our efforts to improve our gross margin were rewarded as we were able to increase gross margins by 1% to 6.8% for the year. With our renewed focus on margins and brand development at the forefront of our initiatives for 2013, we believe a 9% gross margin for the year is achievable," said Andrew Gordon, President and Chief Executive Officer.         
"During 2012, we saw major growth in sales of our flagship brand, Café Caribe, and we believe we will be able to build upon such growth during 2013. In addition, we made our first sales of green coffee into China, validating our belief that this can be a promising new avenue for revenue growth. Our wholesale green coffee and private label sales also remained strong in spite of the volatility in both the coffee market and the macro environment," added Mr. Gordon.
        "In addition, our subsidiaries, OPTCO and Generations, continued to provide solid revenue growth during 2012. Unfortunately, in the case of OPTCO, the collapse in green coffee prices had a negative effect on its profitability, which negatively impacted our profitability as a whole. However, we believe the disposal of our high priced inventories at OPTCO combined with a more favorable green coffee market heading into 2013, will return our OPTCO subsidiary to the levels of profitability achieved in prior years. With our strong balance sheet and growing customer base, we expect to remain on the path of steady growth and profitability for the 2013 fiscal year," concluded Mr. Gordon.
我的2个股票基本面和未来都不错，这家咖啡公司今年进入中国，这是个好消息，看看中国的人口每年的咖啡15%的增长率，这家咖啡公司预计今年可以增长15-25%销售总而。

金融角斗士

Nicely Caffeinated
Despite the recent prominence of energy drinks, like Red Bull, the world still gets the majority of its caffeine fix from coffee. Currently, the worldwide market for java is actually larger than the market for silver. About $37 billion worth of silver was consumed last year. Total coffee consumption was north of $38 billion, and that market continues to getting bigger. The International Coffee Organization estimates that global coffee consumption rose 2.4% in 2010 to a record 134.0 million 60-kilogram bags. That demand continues to grow in the face of higher prices. U.S. coffee demand increased 2% from June 2010 to June 2011, and analysts predict China's coffee consumption will grow at 15 to 20% annually. Driven by students returning from abroad and a newly emerged Chinese international business traveler, China's coffee demand will certainly rise well above its current three-cups-a-year average. Industry leader, Starbucks (Nasdaq:SBUX) has already announced plans to triple its presence in the Asian nation over the next four years.

Consumers in India have also begun to embrace coffee, and have reduced their tea consumption. Relatively expensive Arabica beans have given way to cheaper ones, such as Robusta, to meet India's surging demand. In emerging Latin America, the story is also similar. (For more on commodities around the world, check out 4 Commodities Affected By World Conflicts.)

Weather Concerns
In the face of this increasing demand, supplies of coffee continue to diminish. Weather has wreaked havoc on producers' output. Brazil recently suffered an August frost that should decrease yields in 2012. The nation is expected to yield around 55 million bags in 2012. However, that amount will still not be enough to satisfy the estimated 64 million bags needed. Colombia, the third largest producer, suffered debilitating rainfall and its coffee exports dropped 38%. Colombia's recent harvest was the lowest level of production since September 1988. Finally, input costs for growers continue to rise. Fertilizer, irrigation and transportation costs all continue to rise. This will help keep the cost of coffee at higher levels.

Brewing a Cup
Despite the fact that coffee prices have surged nearly 387% since early 2002, the long-term promise for the commodity is great. As demand continues to rise, prices will continue to rise higher as well. Any weather related supply shocks will send coffee prices further skyward. To that end, investors may want to bet on the soft commodity. The iPath DJ-UBS Coffee ETN (NYSE:JO) is the easiest way to bet on coffee futures pricing, and currently sits at about $20 below its 52-week high. Investors can also use the iPath Pure Beta Coffee ETN (NYSE:CAFE), which uses a unique roll strategy for its contracts.

For those investors looking to avoid the volatility of the futures market, the coffee roasters with pricing power could be a great a buy. Nestle's (OTCBB:NSRGY) Nescafe brand has seen sales surge throughout Brazil, as the nation's coffee consumption is up 40% since 2001. J.M. Smucker's (NYSE:SJM) might be better as it has also been quite successful in passing on higher costs to consumers. It recently raised prices by 11% on its Folgers brand, and has seen great growth in its partnership with Dunkin' Brands (NASDAQNKN) to distributeDunkin' Donuts packaged coffee.

The Bottom Line
With global demand for coffee continuing to rise and supplies still threatened by poor weather, coffee prices have nowhere to go but up. This supply and demand imbalance could spell out opportunities in the sector, and investors have a variety of ways to profit. Investors can add a jolt to their portfolio either by betting directly on coffee prices or via roasting stocks like Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq:GMCR) and Coffee Holdings (NYSE:JVA). (For more on soft commodities, read Trading The Soft Commodity Markets.)

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/stoc ... .aspx#ixzz2KlNZ7Lsm
以上分析继续鼓励我长期持有咖啡至少1-3年，甚至5年

金融角斗士

更换CRESY到NM获得效益，CRESY昨天继续大跌：8.65，NM却上涨到3.8，让账户重新获利400多。

金融角斗士

TGS是阿根廷板块走势最好的股票之一，NM是希腊海运股很好的股票，这个组合让我满意安心,不过这个组合还是偏保守：
2个周期股，(JVA,NM)，一个医药和1个银行股和1个天然气股属于偏价值股慢成长股，还是国际和美国各一半资金。
下次投资组合（5-6个，30K USD,2-3月后)将要偏向高成长股价值股。要求国际，三分之一，美国本地股三分之二）
，国内概念由于都是国内散户在买，所以近期很难拉起来，等等看再说。原先很看好的ISS，老板居然带头抛售，让我如何买入它？老板最了解内情，缺钱也没有必然抛售自己的股票，原来极为看好的仁皇药业忽然停牌1周，没有消息，令人疑惑，幸亏没有买入,原因是这家公司没有及时上交规定的表格，目前被临时上市，如果还是不交齐报表，将被退市，看看多么恐怖，老板一意孤行，任意胡为，买入该公司股票者将血本无归，北方的公司老板有些遇到困难就破换破摔，缺乏理性，倒霉的是散户，所以中国概念股总被做空，要买就买南方的公司，南方老板较为理性

金融角斗士

原先定期投入法则有些改动：观察月周线MACD最底部进入，以保证完全进入，当然前提是高成长的股票

金融角斗士

推荐美股几个股票筛选器一边和我讨论：
1）https://research2.fidelity.com/f ... sp?page=landing.asp
2）http://www.zacks.com/stock/screener/
3）http://finviz.com/screener.ashx
美股铺天盖地，太多了，信息满天飞。用筛选器来找寻股票