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—————————————————————————————————————————————2011-04-13 14:19:14 新浪博客 夕饮冰
We continue with part II of our look at the investment
strategies of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, who was often dubbed by media as
India’s Warren
Buffett. (Click here to see
part I.)
DON’T CHASE GROWTH PER SE
不要追寻成长本身
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s first mantra on how to find ten-baggers is to
reverse your thinking: “Don’t look for multibaggers. Don’t seek
them at all. Let the multibaggers come to you!” What he is saying
is that investors have to look for hidden growth potential ignored
by the market. Most people go out into the investment world saying:
“I only want to invest in potential multibaggers.” That’s how
people rush into hot stocks at ridiculous valuations. Instead,
Rakesh says: “Go back to the old-fashioned way of making
investments designed by investment maestros Benjamin Graham, Peter
Lynch and Warren
Buffett … If your homework is right and you have invested in
fundamentally sound companies with good growth prospects, your
investments will by themselves become multibaggers with the passage
of time.”
金君瓦拉第一个有关如何找寻十倍的咒语是与你的想法逆向而行，“不要寻找翻倍股票，根本不要寻找它们，让这些翻倍股到你这来。”他的意思就是投资者必须寻找那些被市场忽视的隐藏的成长潜力。许多投资界的人都说，“我只想投资具有潜力的翻倍股。”这就是人们如何对荒谬估值的热门股一哄而上。相反，金君瓦拉说，“去看看格雷厄姆、林奇和巴菲特的老式的投资方式吧，如果你的功课做对、投资于基本面健康的公司，同时其也具有好的成长前景。随着时间流逝，你的投资自己就会变成翻倍股。”
This line of advice echoes some ancient Zen sayings such as, “To
truly possess something, first you have to let go.” “In order to
see better, you should first close your eyes.” Therefore, to find
growth, stop looking for growth. In order to find a ten-bagger, you
have to stop looking for ten-baggers. Be a contrarian. Find out
where the market is wrong. Have the courage to invest against
prevailing market wisdom. In essence, the type of growth an
investor should look out for is ignored growth potential.
这句话有些古代的禅语，“欲先取之，必先与之。”“要想远望，必先闭眼。”所以要寻找成长，就首先不要寻找成长。为了找到十倍股，你必有停止寻找十倍股。作一个逆向思维者。找到市场哪里出了错。拥有逆市场流行智慧进行投资的勇气。本质上，投资者应该留心的成长类型就是不要理睬成长潜力。（夕注：以我目前对投资的理解，我凌乱了！）
Rakesh looks for under-researched companies with low
institutional holding and under general pessimism about the
stock.
金君瓦拉寻找那些很少机构持有的、看起来很悲观的、少人有研究的公司。
A good example is his investment in Bata India way back in '96 when
the shoe maker was viewed as dead boring. Bata India has almost
tripled since. Another example is BEML which, several years ago,
was quoted at a pittance because it was regarded as a slothful
government enterprise. No investor in his right mind wanted the
shares of BEML at that time. But while other investors saw a
sluggish government corporation, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala saw efficient
management, a great product line-up and strong cash-flows. The
result: a multibagger. Also, when Bharat Electronics was regarded
as a boring company by other investors, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s
discerning eye saw what others miss.
一个好的例子是96年投资于BATA这支死气沉沉的制鞋企业，此股从那时起涨了三3倍。另一个例子是BEML，几年前报价极低，因为它被公认为一个慵懒的国有企业。金君瓦拉看到了其能干的管理层，优秀的产品线和强大的现金流。结果是，一支多倍股。另外，当Bharat
Electronics被公认为一支无趣的公司时，金瓦拉鹰般的眼睛看到了其它人没有看到的。（夕注：这是金君瓦拉最引以为傲的战例。）
On the other hand, if an investor literally look for multibaggers
and seek out hot growth, what would they buy in the exciting days
of 2000? The naïve “growth” investor would have looked around and
found hot companies like Himachal Futuristic, Global Tele,
Pentasoft soaring on the stock exchange, making new highs every
day. They would rush in to buy those “multibaggers of the year” and
end up seeing their assets evaporate into hot air.
从另一方面看，如果投资者一心想要寻找多倍股，热门成长股，他们在2000年令人激动的日子里会买什么呢？天真的“成长”投资者会环顾四周，发现Himachal
Futuristic, Global Tele,
Pentasoft这些热门股票在交易所一飞冲天，每天都创出新高。他们会一头冲进去买那些“当年的多倍股”最后以资产在热气中蒸发而告终。
DON’T TRY TO TIME THE MARKET
不要择时
The interesting thing about market timing is that all great
investors advise against it, but most investors simply can’t help
trying it. Who in their right mind doesn’t want to buy a few
dollars cheaper? Who doesn’t want to buy exactly at the bottom? Who
doesn’t think that he is the smart one who could beat the game?
Market timing is a game so sexy that almost everybody has been
lured into it one time or another, waiting for a clear bottom
formation.
有趣的是，所有的伟大投资者都在奉劝不要择时，但大多数投资者都控制不住要这么做。从内心里讲，谁不想在便宜几块钱再买？谁不想正好买在底部？谁不认为他自己很聪明能在投资游戏中获胜？市场择时这个游戏是如此性感，几乎每个人都被诱惑其中，一次又一次，等待清楚的底部信息。
While some investors hesitate on the way down, other investors miss
the chance to buy on the way up. “Oh, gosh, I missed the bottom! I
should have jumped in yesterday. Well, let me wait for a pull
back.” And that pull back often doesn’t come. The fact is, no one
can consistently get in at the bottom of the market. Instead, if
you are getting the stock cheap in terms of its intrinsic value and
future prospects, buy it.
一些投资者在向下的趋势中犹豫，一些投资者错过了向上趋势中的买入。“噢，老天，我错过了底部，我昨天应该进去。好，等回调吧”这样的回调通常不会出现。事实上，没人能够每次都买在市场的底。如果你认为按内在价值和未来的潜力，股票已经算便宜的了，那就买。
Investors would be much better off if they simply forget about the
market and just focus on getting the business right. The best story
to illustrate this is a story told by Warren
Buffett: Coca-Cola (KO) went
through an initial public offering (IPO) in 1919 when it issued and
sold shares to the public at $40 each. A year later, the price
dropped to $19. Those who loved the stock and bought in, the bulls,
would have lost more than 50% of their money in just one year.
While the bulls were licking their wounds, the bears, those who
hated the stock, would claim that they had looked into their
crystal ball and they saw the future, the macroeconomic events.
What would they see? Endless problems: sugar rationing, rebellious
farmers, the Great Depression, World War II, nuclear weapons, and
what not. In fact, at any given time, there were always solid
reasons to be a bear and say no to Coca-cola. But if you had gone
ahead and bought that one share for $40 and reinvested the
dividends, your investment in Coca-Cola would be worth $7 Million
by 2000.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala echoes the words of the Oracle of Omaha: What
you must get right is the business. If you get the business right,
everything else falls into place.
金君瓦拉附和这位奥马哈圣人的话：你最需要把握的是公司。如果你把握准了公司，一切好事都会按部就班。
LET THE WINNERS RUN
让利润奔跑
Many value investors sell their stocks near fair value. When does
Rake Rakesh Jhunjhunwala sell his favorite picks? His answer is:
“Never!”
许多价值投资者在公允价值附近卖掉了股票。金君瓦拉何时卖出股票？他的回答是：永远不！
“Don’t sell for the sake of selling because you can never say that
the 10-bagger today will not become a 20-bagger tomorrow.” But he
quickly qualified his statement that this does not mean that one
will never sell a multibagger. He gives two situations when even a
committed long-term business owner like him may sell his beloved
ten-baggers. The first is when he is short of cash that could be
invested in a stock that will give even better returns than the
existing one. And second, when the stock market has become overly
irrational. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala gives the example of what happened
in 2000 when euphoric investors laid bets that Infosys’ earnings
would double every year for the next 10 years. Infosys’ P/E then
reached 100-150 times. So, when the expected earnings peaks and the
P/E becomes unsustainable, that is the time to sell.
“不要为卖而卖，因为很难你说今天卖出的十倍股明天不会变成二十倍股。”但他很快说明这并不是说永远也不要卖出多倍股。他讲了两个卖出的条件。
1、当他想买一支比现在持股回报更高的股票而没现金时；
2、当市场变得极度不理性时。
金君瓦拉举了2000年的一个例子，当狂热的投资者赌Infosys的利润将会在未来的十年每年翻番时，他的PE到了100－150倍，当期望的利润峰和PE无法被证实（或不能成立）时，就是卖出的时候了。
According to Rakesh, it is a waste of time to set price targets
based on some kind of estimate of intrinsic value, which is an
invisible moving target itself. Often times, you end up selling
your picks way too early at the target price. A good time to sell a
stock should not be based on any “price” targets. The best time to
sell is when the earnings expectations have peaked, the business
model has peaked, or the valuations appear ridiculous.
按照金君瓦拉的说法，基于对内在价值的估测而设立的目标价是在浪费时间，它本身是不可见的移动靶。在目标价卖出通常都太早。好的卖出点应该不基于任何目标价。最好的卖出时间是当盈利预期到顶，商业模式到头，或者估值开始显得荒谬时。
There seems to be a little bit of George
Soros in Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s operation. He endorses the
notion that a trend is your best friend. And he might have been
“hands-on” himself to create that trend or buzz for his favorite
stocks. In the past, market regulator Securities and Exchange Board
of India (SEBI) had initiated investigations into allegations
against Jhunjhunwala and other brokerage outfits of circular
trading in certain stocks. Circular trading occurs when a set of
brokers acts as a cartel and keeps selling the same set of shares
to each other to create the appearance of a buying wave. India’s
Income Tax Department had once put a hold on his property after a
search operation in March 2001 following the Ketan Parekh scam.
Jhunjhunwala had survived till now.
FOCUS, FOCUS, AND FOCUS
集中，集中还是集中
Should we diversify or should we concentrate when managing
investment portfolios? Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is an unabashed
proponent of the concentrated portfolio theory. But the focus
theory must be carefully understood before being implemented in
practice as it can otherwise lead to disaster. When you overly
concentrate, you do well when you are right. But you could get
burned if you are wrong.
当管理我们的组合时，我们应该分散还是集中？金君瓦拉是仓位集中理论的坚定支持者。但在实施之前，要对这个集中理论认真地理解，因为它也会导致灾难。当你过分集中时，你做对了就会大赚；但如果做错，那就惨了。
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala emphasizes that you should venture into a
concentrated portfolio only after you made sure that you have
identified a share that will deliver a return superior to all the
other choices. The conviction must be extremely strong, says Rakesh
Jhunjhunwala.
金君瓦拉强调，只有当你确信你一支股票的回报将会超过所有其它的选择时，你应该冒险重仓。这要求确定性要极其强。
ADAPT AND INNOVATE
顺应和创新
“Value investing is relevant in all circumstances. But thought
processes and principles are dynamic and not static. Be open to
change,” Rakesh Jhunjhunwala says.
金君瓦拉说，“价值投资与所有的事情都相关的。但思维过程和原理是动态的不是静态的。对于变化要打开心扉。”
As to his own operation, Rakesh had reportedly used trading and
leverage before. But he himself claims that he puts only a
minuscule amount of his net worth on the table for trading activity
using leverage.
对于他自己的操作，金君瓦拉之前被报道过进行交易和利用杠杆。但他声称他只用过净资产的很小地部分做过公开杠杆交易。
Jhunjhunwala believes that choices of asset classes are important,
too, “If you bought gold in 1970 and sold it in 1980. If you then
bought the Nikkei Index in 1980 and sold it in 1989. And then you
bought the Nasdaq until 1999, you would have made 33% compounded
returns in three decades.” But he stopped short of discussing how
investors could get into the right asset class at the right
time.
他认为资产类别的选择也是重要的，“如果你1970年买了黄金，在1980年卖掉。然后如果你在1980年买了Nikkei
Index并在1989年卖出，然后你在1999年买入Nasdaq，你就会在这30年里年复合回报率达就会达到33%。”但是他突然停止讨论投资都如何在正确的时候买入正确的资产。。。。。
Brian Zen, PhD, CFA, is founder of Zenway Group, a New York-based investment
advisory firm that provides family wealth creation coaching
programs and tutoring services to children and their parents.
Through newsletters, family learning parties, face-to-face tutoring
and online classes, Zenway-certified Financial Tutors teaches
children the craft of investing and helps their parents to grow
family wealth. Dr. Zen appreciates your questions and feedbacks at:
info (at) zenway.com.
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发表于 2011-10-15 23:04:09
